This week we focus on the availability bias
“You can use all the quantitative data you can get, but you still have to distrust it and use your own intelligence and judgment.” -Alvin Toffler
The Availability Bias: Perceptions and Influence, by Howard Rankin PhD
AI is Not Legitimate Without Availability Bias, by Grant Renier
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The Availability Bias: Perceptions and Influence
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Some of our perceptions about the way we think and cognitive biases, are themselves biased. For example, cognitive strategies, aka biases, can overlap and be mutually influential.
Consider the availability bias, which suggests that we are overly influenced by the information that is available to us.
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There is a temptation to perceive that as meaning all available information is equally influential. But obviously it isn’t, because we have our own views about the validity of each piece of information.
For example, if we encounter information that is in distinct contrast to our opinions and beliefs, we will seriously discount it or ignore it altogether as a result of our confirmation bias. Similarly, the anchoring bias suggests that initial information directs future consideration, which might be true IF you consider and value all of the available information as equally valid.
It is also likely that your predispositions, like confirmation bias, will determine what you are seeking from information and significantly affect what information you do, and don’t, pursue, and thus which is and isn’t available to you.
This suggests that human perception and thinking is a large ecosystem, where specific strategies interact and are dependent on each other in the determination of perception at a general and a specific level.
Yes, of course, we are influenced significantly by what information is available, but what is available to us is also a function of general human cognitive strategies. Moreover, almost all information has usually been generated and presented in a specific context for a specific purpose.
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by Howard Rankin PhD, Intuality Science Director, psychology and cognitive neuroscience
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AI is Not Legitimate Without Availability Bias
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Imagine this: we're more afraid of flying than driving to the airport, even though car accident rates are significantly higher than those of flying. Somewhere, a committee is probably debating whether to build more airports or highways. But how can we accurately interpret travel demand without simulating these behaviors? Our beliefs, when inputted as sequential data, tend to repeat and dominate our decisions. For AI to be truly effective, it must receive not only travel demand data but also data representing traveler preferences.
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Think about a chess-playing AI. It needs to understand the rules of the game, but it also needs to anticipate the probable behaviors of its players. Similarly, AI in travel must consider not just raw data but also factors like the weather, time of day, day of the week, holidays, and even whether a traveler has a cold.
AI Logic
Current AI development often involves high up-front costs and time to select and analyze potentially relevant data. Then, there are the lengthy learning and training phases. At IntualityAI, we approach this differently. Our logic is designed to process any influential data in real time and dynamically control its degree of influence. We purposely input potentially related data and observe its impact on the application's objective. If it turns out to have little to no long-term use, it trims it out of its knowledge base.
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by Grant Renier, Intuality Chairman, engineering, mathematics, behavioral science, economics
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This content is not for publication
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