February 9, 2024

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"The Decisive Moment", by Dr Howard Rankin

"The Dawn of Superhero Decision Teams of AI's and Intelligent Humans”, by Michael Hentschel 

 "Is it possible to simulate rationality and feelings?", by Grant Renier

Current Prediction News

— Historical Prediction Results —

The Decisive Moment

The magical moment: When is that moment when the battle between competing thoughts and emotions is resolved? When does the conflict between the frontal lobe and the hypothalamus and the emotional brain, get decided? Finally, you make the decision and the conflict is decided – at least for now.

If the situation has very little meaning: or consequence, that decision is easy. What should I have for dinner? Does it really matter? There is no conflict. 

However, suppose the question is: about whether to make a significant investment in this stock, where the consequences of a wrong decision has much more importance. Well, you could always “play it safe” and take no action, but that isn’t playing safe; it might turn out to be a very lost opportunity. And risk minimization is not just a logical strategy, it has emotional resonance.

We have all felt the hesitancy of indecision: as we try to decipher the messages coming from the different areas of the mind-body. Then, for some reason, or no reason, we feel a resolution – yes, let’s do it! Or no, I think I’ll pass on it.

Question is whether that moment of decision: is based on rationality or feeling, or both or neither? If there’s a feeling, is that the decisive variable or is it merely a response to the logical decision? Which comes first? Or do they both happen concurrently?

Intercellular communication and messages: within and to the brain happen in milliseconds. Research shows that muscular movements have begun even before we are aware of the decision to move. Just because you become aware of any decision doesn’t mean that it hasn’t been decided beyond consciousness. In fact, it is likely to have been resolved and you are now just becoming aware of it. Awareness is not the same as agency.

Now, you might think that current technology: like MRI can accurately show what is happening in the brain. Unfortunately it can’t reliably keep up with the speed of what is actually happening; cellular messages being transmitted, and action occurring in milliseconds. And of course, there was neuroscientist Craig Bennett’s experience with a dead salmon in a Dartmouth lab.

He examined the dead salmon’s response: to images of people in different social situations. The fMRI showed that the area where the salmon's tiny brain sat showed evidence of activity. In the fMRI scan, it looked like the dead salmon was actually thinking about the pictures it had been shown.

We might be conscious of the moment: we make a decision but that doesn’t actually tell us how the decision was made. We might think we’re being purely logical, but how much, if any, of the emotional satisfaction at appearing logical contributed to the decision and the confidence in it?

As I once wrote several years ago: “Human beings aren’t logical they’re psychological, often with the emphasis on the psycho.”

No matter how much we might believe: we can be entirely logical, there’s logically currently no way to determine how true, or even rational, that presumption is.

by Howard Rankin PhD, Intuality Science Director, psychology and cognitive neuroscience

The Dawn of Superhero Decision Teams of AI's and Intelligent Humans

 When I immigrated as a 10-year-old: into the United States I officially became a legal resident Alien. This is a role I have chosen to continue, as I simultaneously carry the passport of another Strange Land called Germany. Whether being an Alien has rendered me more objective or more subjective is unclear, but I am keenly interested and aware and respectful of the structural development of America, having gone through 

comparatively deep Civics Education, including occasional wonderment. 

We are at the "Dawn of Collaborative Super-Intelligence:" featuring teams of knowledge-specific GPTs, AI agents, and wise intelligent well-educated humans.

In the not-too-distant future: all decision sectors are set to be transformed by the integration of human wisdom with artificial intelligence (AI) in various decision-making processes. AI-autonomous decisions are expected to become increasingly common, leveraging AI's capacity to swiftly analyze large datasets to inform budgeting, investment strategies, and risk management in all segments. And all walks of life.

The challenge for leaders in all domains: lies in identifying processes that most benefit from AI while fostering a human culture that trusts and embraces these advanced technologies. The transition will not be easy or seamless, may not even be peaceful, but it could be heroic.

AI is making strides: in collaborating with human decision-makers, an approach known as Human-AI collaboration (HAIC). While AI excels in data processing and is great at analysis, it lacks the nuanced understanding and judgment that humans possess, and which is needed for ultimately beneficial decisions. Will it gain such understanding? We humans at IntualityAI are striving to integrate our thoughts.

Collaboration aims to harness the strengths of both: ensuring that improvements in AI prediction accuracy are set to enhance human-centric next steps, predictions and longer term projections. AI algorithms are becoming more adept at identifying patterns and making predictions, which can be invaluable for budgeting, investment strategies, and risk management. However, the reliability of these AI-driven predictions hinges on the quality of data and the effectiveness of the AI models in use. Both humans and machines must team up, form task forces, face challenges, akin to teams of superheroes dedicated to solving the conflicts of the world that would otherwise create sub-optimal outcomes.

The fusion of AI's super-rationality: with human intuition is anticipated to yield higher financial profits and yet more competitive business conditions everywhere. Small teams of entrepreneurs can put extensive staffs of AI’s to work to deliver improved products and productivity in almost every hardware and software application, including services.

Recently, it has been seriously discussed: that we might soon have an entrepreneurial human idea that could spawn a “Unicorn” company whose valuation exceeds a billion dollars with only a single human employee. Is that a good thing? Perhaps regardless, this may usher in another dawn, that of universal basic income, spent to consume the products of such Unicorns, and designed for a future of abundance.

For businesses to maintain a competitive edge: it is crucial to combine AI’s computational prowess with human judgment. While AI systems are highly advanced, they may lack the capacity for sound judgment or common sense, which is where human intuition and decision-making come into play. In this brave new world, the human superhero brings originality, creativity, drive to implement, and sheer COURAGE to make the decision to go ahead and keep going against inevitable challenges and obstacles.

Would we want machines to practice: such sheer courage without safeguards and human guidance? Would machines ultimately want us to practice such sheer courage or would the machines eventually oppose our creative (or crackpot) ideas? The point again is a need for teamwork. And heroic teamwork at that: the world needs a lot of mediocrity executed well, but it is the heroic projects that inspire humanity to greatness and prosperity.

Carefully considered of course: the information revolution should improve collaborative excellence.

by Michael Hentschel, Intuality CFO, anthropologist, economist, venture capitalist

The debate on whether computers can simulate human rationality or feelings delves into the heart of artificial intelligence and its philosophical underpinnings. A key element in this discussion is the use by Intuitive Rationality©  (IR) of Bayesian probability logic, which attempts to simulate aspects of human decision-making by calculating the ‘probability of a hypothesis as more evidence becomes available’. This method attempts to mirror how humans adjust their beliefs based on new information, 

enabling IR to make decisions that seem intuitively rational, akin to human decision-making processes.

This approach enables IR to analyze vast amounts of data, recognize patterns, and make predictions, achieving levels of decision-making that can resemble human intuition. There are 75,000 future probabilities, in each new minute, hour, and day-long event, for IR to choose from in a trading account that is tracking the S&P 500 equities. Selecting one emerging opportunity out of thousands, using Bayesian logic, seems to simulate aspects of human rationality effectively.

However, the challenge intensifies when considering the simulation of human feelings. As Howard has written about the complexity of decision-making and Michael has described ‘super intelligence’, emotions are always deeply subjective, tied to consciousness, personal history, and the intricate web of human biology and psychology. IR can mimic responses that seem emotionally intelligent, but we know it does not experience emotions as humans do. The simulation of feelings is essentially an imitation of behavioral outputs, devoid of the subjective experience that defines our emotions.

IR can simulate aspects of human rationality quite proficiently, but replicating human feelings remains a more elusive goal. This distinction underscores the complexity of human emotions and the ongoing quest to bridge the gap between IR’s capabilities and the nuances of human experience.

by Grant Renier, Intuality Chairman, engineering, mathematics, behavioral science, economics

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