October 13, 2023

 

IntualityAI's 'big picture' analysis has decided to pause trading

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"In the vast realm of cognition, a humanized AI is the nimble-footed athlete", by Grant Renier 

Dr Howard Rankin writes, "Information” needs to be analyzed for meaning and context"

 
 

IntualityAI is 'Sleeping' during these volatile days, since 9/12. See intualityai.com/predictions for daily updates.

 
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TRADING PERFORMANCE RESULTS OF THE INTUALITYAI SYSTEM HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS.  NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN REPORTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY THE SYSTEM OR PORTFOLIO. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF REPORTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

In the vast realm of cognition, a humanized AI is the nimble-footed athlete

The new exploding awareness of artificial intelligence is experiencing a growing understanding that it is not complete unless it behaves like us, that our realities are the result of a constant ‘summing up’ of all our right and wrong decisions and actions, that all data does not magically appear from some non-human unbiased generator, and that trying to clean it of all human bias is a fool’s errand that distances it from the real-world problems it is trying to solve. 

The new exploding awareness of artificial intelligence is experiencing a growing understanding that it is not complete unless it behaves like us, that our realities are the result of a constant ‘summing up’ of all our right and wrong decisions and actions, that all data does not magically appear from some non-human unbiased generator, and that trying to clean it of all human bias is a fool’s errand that distances it from the real-world problems it is trying to solve. Our research over the decades has demonstrated that to understand data and predict it, we need to view it through the lens of simulated human cognition and action, the core of its creation. 

Consider a simple yet poignant metaphor: When darkness engulfs your home due to a power outage, your preparedness might have led you to stock candles and flashlights. Or in the face of an unexpected freeway gridlock, your car's navigation system offers an alternative escape route. While these situations may echo past occurrences, each event is a unique tapestry of human-defined causes and effects. Drawing a straight line between past and present using mere reductionism is an endeavor fraught with imperfections. The complexities of any system or object extend beyond the mere sum of its historical parts.

This dynamism in decision-making—how effectively we foresee and navigate the unpredictable trajectories of complex systems—is termed ecological validity. The eureka moments, when you swiftly illuminate your home or adeptly sidestep a traffic bottleneck, are more than just personal victories. They validate the heuristic frameworks guiding our actions, not by laborious data dredging, but by the sheer bias-driven intuitive success of the decision.

In the vast realm of cognition, a humanized AI is the nimble-footed athlete, relying on tried-and-true heuristics rooted in real-world pragmatism. It's the embodiment of our evolutionary knack to swiftly assess, act with conviction, and move on, unburdened by the baggage of past data. To draw a parallel, when the tennis maestro Roger Federer was prodded about his odds against an opponent, despite a favorable historical record, he sagely noted the irrelevance of past games. The present, after all, is a new game altogether.

by Grant Renier, Intuality Chairman, engineering, mathematics, behavioral science, economics

 

 “information” needs to be analyzed for meaning and context

There are several important things to know about humans

Survival is a priority

Control and comfort are key psychological goals

The brain is limited in that it has only a certain amount of energy and can only focus on one thing at a time. (Multi-tasking is really task switching.)

The brain seeks understanding through symmetry

It is a function of all of these characteristics that history is considered the best way to adapt and anticipate events to effectively manage evolving situations. This is the standard approach and thinking.

However, this is not a perfect or even an ideal approach. It is simply a function of a limited brain in which binary thinking is the default setting. Wisdom is recognizing the limits of such an approach. Indeed the smartest people in the room are often not those who know all of facts but understand context and meaning, without which facts can be rendered useless. (And you almost never know what percentage of the facts you know, or don’t know, and how relevant they might be). Such wisdom is critical because our brain’s need for energy-saving shortcuts will lead is to accepting very limited and flawed perceptions of everything, ourselves included.

The wise, creative mind will ask itself  in a challenging situation these questions.

What are the simiarities that suggest a past situation is the same as the present one?

How are the current and past situations the same and how are they different?

How is the context and meaning of the current situation different from the previous one?

This is where intuition and creativity come in. Instead of opting for the simplistic approach (Kahneman’s System 1 thinking) one should look creatively for the similarities and the differences to determine how valuable any past information is.

But how do you know that?

You challenge any facts in an open-minded way.

Part of this critical analysis is understanding how the data has been framed and presented.

What is the data called?

For example a data set pertaining to murders might be called “Essential information for catching a serial killer” or “Some serial killer data”.

Who framed the data?

Think of a drug trial where a pharmaceutical company is trying to get approval from the FDA. Will the data be framed differently by the pharma company than by a panel of independent experts?

And any data, and “information” derived from it, are at least in part, if not wholly a product of human perception. Who decides what “information” is important, and who weights that “information”? Let’s imagine a study in which a thousand people were asked about their eating habits. How generalizable is such “information”? Questions abound. Are all genders, socioeconomic factors, cultural differences, and age groups equally represented? How reliable is the information provided? What other variables might contribute to eating preferences? What is the exformation, the “information” that has not been included?

Now all this applies to external data, presented in the form of independent facts. What about internal data, the information that resides within us from our own experiences, perceptions and education?

This has its flaws, too. It can be very colored by our individual experiences but it has something else that external data doesn’t. It has feeling, and feeling very often leads us to search for context and meaning.

Have you ever seen some “information” and felt “there’s something not right about this?” Somehow it doesn’t seem to resonate and this leads you on a deeper exploration of the data and your intuition.

Sometimes, when exploring what seems odd about “information”, you discover that you have misunderstood what was being presented. Other times, you will see the limitations of the presented data: not enough of it to be conclusive; very situation-specific and not relevant or generalizable; too many false assumptions, etc., etc.

It’s not that “information” is worthless, far from it. But “information” always needs to be critically analyzed for meaning and context,  and that is a specifically human activity.

by Howard Rankin PhD, Intuality Science Director, psychology and cognitive neuroscience

 
 
 

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