November 10, 2023

 

IntualityAI Markets is still sleeping on the sidelines!

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"Predicting the Next Play", by Grant Renier 

 "IntualityAI App that Helps People Break Destructive habits", by Dr Howard Rankin

 "Security Sector Predictive AI Applications", by Michael Hentschel

 
 

IntualityAI continues to 'Sleep', since 9/12. See intualityai.com/predictions for its daily status.

 
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TRADING PERFORMANCE RESULTS OF THE INTUALITYAI SYSTEM HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS.  NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN REPORTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY THE SYSTEM OR PORTFOLIO. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF REPORTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

Predicting the next play

It's a bright and cool Sunday afternoon to be in the stands to watch your favorite NFL football team. You're so confident that your team is going to win that yesterday you made a sizable wager through your online wagering app. And your subscription to the IntualitySports app is also picking your team to win and even told you how much to wager. You have high confidence in IntualityAI, given its historical track record of 58% win-rate and 50% return on wagering since 2011.

But just in case your team has one of those dreaded games, you want to be able to offset your wager through the new in-game wagering services. So you've downloaded the IntualityAI Real-Time Prediction phone app that will update its game predictions seconds after every play. Three minutes into the game your quarterback throws an interception and its run back for a touchdown. Within a few seconds the app beeps with an update that shows a reduced wager. You click on your in-game wagering app to offset your pre-game wager to reduce your risk. As the game progresses, the IntualityAI app continues to track every play result for both teams and actually updates a line graph of its prediction of every play for each team to the end of the game. 

IntualityAI in-game prediction is a planned application that we will be commercializing in the near future.

by Grant Renier, Intuality Chairman, engineering, mathematics, behavioral science, economics

 

IntualityAI App that Helps People Break Destructive habits

As far as I can tell all habit tracker apps are about the development of new habits. You enter what simple habits you want to do and can easily track your practice and adherence. However, there doesn’t seem to be tracker that gets to the key issue for many people trying to change their habits: how not to engage in destructive behaviors, like using drugs, drinking too much alcohol, eating poor quality food, gambling too much, watching porn, and so on.

The fact is that these addictive habits have developed a neural infrastructure that make them very high probability and often automatic beyond the level of conscious control. 

Yes, you need to develop new behaviors but you have to shed the old ones first.

For anyone trying to shed such addictive behaviors the issue is de-programming them first before building new, healthier habits. The focus is initially on avoiding temptation. However, the way to change the neural structure of unwanted habits is to be in tempting situations and not indulge. This is not easy and obviously cues vary in their level of temptation. The key is gradual exposure to situations or cues, that are more manageable, and increasing the temptation exposure as the neural infrastructure of the habit devolves and more self-control develops. An app that could reliably predict upcoming tempting cues and the ability to manage them would be a pioneering step forward in behavior change.

Predicting temptation and the risk of “slips” and “relapses” for those trying to change habits would also be a major contribution to healthcare and preventive medicine as many habitual behaviors are the root of illness and disease.

The vast majority of medical conditions have major lifestyle components that hold the key to recovery and wellness. There are millions of people trying, or should be trying, to modify their unhealthy habits.

Habit change is not easy as old habits die hard. It is a process but one that can be managed with the right mindset, appropriate preparation, identification of critical cues, and healthier coping behaviors.

Variables that would very valuable in determining a person’s risk of getting into high temptation include the following: Day of the Week, Time of day, Stress as indicated by Blood Pressure, Environment, Heart Rate, Level of physical activity, Sleep Quality, Respirations, Heart Rate Variability, etc.

An actionable alert would tell the user to engage coping strategies to reduce the temptation, like calling his/her accountability partners, exercise, etc. Alerts could also be shared with others, so supportive others could help the person resist or remove themselves from the high risk situation.

Alerts could not only inform users of the degree of danger in upcoming situations but also the user’s ability to successfully manage the temptation. This would be massive. After years of indulgence, many people have very automatic thoughts about temptation and their ability to manage it either by avoidance or self-control. Having objective measures of upcoming risks and the ability to manage them would make a very significant difference for the millions of people addicted to harmful behaviors.

Howard Rankin PhD has been described as the “leading lifestyle change expert” and has worked with major organizations and individuals to help those with a variety of addiction problems. He was also an editor for the scientific journal Addictive Behaviors and has published more than 30 scientific papers on the topic.

by Howard Rankin PhD, Intuality Science Director, psychology and cognitive neuroscience

 

Security Sector Predictive AI Applications

The IntualityAI algorithm represents an incredibly compact and efficient “Local Inference Computer.” This is to say that wherever our utility is applied, it contributes to improving probabilistic decision-making by taking human-like intuition into account for all kinds of prediction. It’s an easily distributed “humanized AI assistant” tool.

Last week we addressed Predictive decision-assisting AI software for Retail Applications. The same IntualityAI compact algorithm can also be used in a variety of Security Applications, including:

• Enhancing cybersecurity and fraud detection by comparing actual with predicted behaviors

• Improving risk management by predicting loss concentrations

• Predicting growing threats and vulnerabilities

Cybersecurity is already a huge established market, but the threats of mimicry of human messaging and communications-behavior are growing by leaps and bounds, exacerbated by some of the very AI technologies we have developed ourselves.

For example, a recent study by the Ponemon Institute found that the average cost of a data breach is $14.8 million in large companies.

Predictive decision-assisting AI software can be used to predict threats and vulnerabilities to computer systems and networks. This information can then be used to enhance cybersecurity and to prevent security breaches. For example, a security analyst can use a predictive decision-assisting AI software to predict that a particular computer system is likely to be attacked by a specific type of malware. The security analyst can then take steps to mitigate the risk of attack.

Our predictive technology is best used as a collaborative enhancement to the data-gathering that must be steadily accelerated to stay ahead of intrusive cyber-attacks. We will propose an IntualityAI Assistant that interactively communicates within organizations to educate users and alert to usage patterns that do not match what should be expected. For example, in corporate e-mail messaging systems (which is becoming a mess, pun intended): 

The IntualityAI Assistant

Addressing the challenge of increasing phishing and fake internal email threats requires a multifaceted approach that combines technological solutions like IntualityAI with enhanced human behavioral strategies. Here’s how large and small enterprises can create a more robust defense against these cybersecurity threats:

1. Use of IntualityAI for Predictive Threat Detection: Behavioral Analysis: IntualityAI can analyze email patterns and detect anomalies indicating phishing attempts or fake emails. Predictive Alerts: It can predict potential threats based on emerging patterns, alerting your IT team to take preemptive actions.

2. Email Filtering and Authentication Technologies: Implement advanced email filtering tools that can identify and block phishing emails. Use email authentication protocols like DMARC, SPF, and DKIM to verify the legitimacy of emails.

3. AI-Driven Training Tools: Use AI tools to create simulated phishing scenarios for training purposes, helping employees recognize and respond to threats.

Enhancing Human Behavioral Approaches:

1. Regular Employee Training: Conduct regular training sessions to educate employees about the latest phishing tactics and how to recognize them. Include practical exercises and simulations to reinforce learning.

2. Creating a Security-Aware Culture: Foster a culture where cybersecurity is everyone’s responsibility. Encourage reporting of suspicious emails. Recognize and reward vigilant behavior to motivate employees.

3. Clear Communication and Guidelines: Develop clear guidelines on how to handle sensitive information and respond to email requests. Ensure all employees are aware of the protocols for verifying the authenticity of internal communications.

4. Behavioral Analysis and Feedback: Use tools like IntualityAI to monitor how employees interact with potential phishing emails. Provide individualized feedback and additional training where necessary.

5. Regular Updates and Awareness Campaigns: Keep employees informed about the latest phishing trends and tactics. Use newsletters, posters, or intranet updates to maintain awareness.

6. Implementing a Phishing Response Plan: Develop a clear response plan for when employees encounter or fall victim to phishing attempts. Ensure quick action can be taken to mitigate any potential damage.

Continuous Evaluation and Improvement:

1. Monitor and Evaluate: Regularly assess the effectiveness of both technological and human strategies.

2. Adapt and Update: Be prepared to update the approach in response to evolving phishing tactics and new cybersecurity technologies.

By combining the predictive and analytical capabilities of IntualityAI with a strong focus on human behavior and education, we can create a more resilient and proactive defense against sophisticated email threats in almost all organizations big and small, a huge market.

by Michael Hentschel, Intuality CFO, anthropologist, economist, venture capitalist

 

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